Judgment判断

When I consider an opportunity, I look not only at how good it is, but also at what it would cost to pursue.

Take investing. A good company is not necessarily a good investment at every price. If its share price has already risen too far, even continued growth may not bring the return I hope for. There is also the question of what else I might miss while my money is tied up.

I think about business opportunities in much the same way. An idea can sound promising, but I still want to understand why a customer would pay, what I would need to put in, and what I could deliver. I ask those questions when taking on a research project and when considering an AI product.

Good ideas deserve attention, but whether they can work depends on the details. Thinking those through helps me decide where to put my effort.

我看一件事，不只看它好不好，也看为了得到它，需要付出什么。

比如投资。一家公司发展得好，不代表它的股票在任何价格都值得买。如果股价已经涨得太高，未来即使继续增长，也未必能带来理想的回报。钱放在那里，还要考虑这段时间错过了什么。

看商业机会时，我也会这样想。一个方向听起来不错，我还要弄清楚：客户为什么愿意付钱，我需要投入多少，最后能交付什么。接研究项目时如此，考虑 AI 产品时也是这样。

好的想法值得关注，但能不能做成，还要看具体条件。想清楚这些，我再决定一件事是否值得投入。